The pseudo-anonymous bitcoin analyst called Plan B gave his 704,000 Twitter followers an update on the notorious stock-to-flow (S2F) bitcoin price model. Plan B stressed on August 27, that the “next months will be key” as he believes the bitcoin S2F model “predicts $100K by Christmas.”
‘$100K by Xmas’
Plan B is a popular figure in the bitcoin world as the pseudo-anonymous analyst is well known for his stock-to-flow (S2F) price model. In basic terms, the model quantifies the commodity’s (bitcoin) scarcity and then divides it by yearly issuance (the flow).
For quite some time now, Plan B and many other S2F fans have insisted that if the model is correct, BTC could one day reach $100K and in the future, possibly a million U.S. dollars per coin. However, in June and July, bitcoin (BTC) prices pulled back a great deal, after reaching a value of more than $64K per unit.
After the price drop, Bitcoin.com News reported on how Plan B was still confident that the bitcoin “bull is not over.” Following the last S2F update, Plan B spoke about his model on August 27th, and gave a prediction.
“Bitcoin stock-to-flow model predicts $100K by Christmas,” Plan B tweeted. “Time model (diminishing returns, lengthening cycles) $30K. Next months will be key. Note that color overlay is on-chain signal (not time to halving), indicating we are between bottom (blue) and top (red), in line with S2F,” the pseudo-anonymous analyst added.
The Time Model Discussion, Plan B’s S2F Preference
Intothecryptoverse.com’s Benjamin Cowen replied to Plan B’s August 27 tweet, and said: “The time model just shows the ‘fair value.’ It does not say that the price of bitcoin has to be that price at a certain time. We can move above and below it, like we do with the S2F model.”
Plan B responded to Cowen’s statement and said: Of course BTC price can move above and below both models.[The] point is that BTC price is currently ABOVE time model, so it is not illogical to expect lower prices if you follow [the] time model. And [the price of BTC] is BELOW S2F model, so it is logical to expect higher prices if you follow S2F.”
Cowen, however, replied further stating:
The extension above the time model in terms of percent shows that we should expect it to ultimately extend further than it already has. If we started expecting it to go lower the minute it moved above the fair value, well that would also be irrational.
Plan B has been bullish for a long time and Bitcoin.com News has covered the S2F trajectory and the model’s criticisms. The model’s creator has often said that BTC will see six-digit prices and he believes the model is on track. The pseudo-anonymous analyst tweets about S2F regularly among other statistics and figures that are tethered to bitcoin.
“Nobody who bought bitcoin and hodled 4+ years (200 weeks) lost money, ever,” Plan B said last week. “Also, both 200wma and realized cap (average cost price of all 18.8M BTC) are at all-time high (ATH).” On August 19, Plan B explain why he prefers the S2F model in contrast to the time model and other estimates.
“S2F model: BTC=a*(S2F ratio)^b,” Plan B stated. “Time model: BTC=a*(months from Jan09)^b. Why I prefer S2F model: [It] tells you when price increases: after halvings, [has] more robust parameters (a,b), time not an input variable, S2FX not a time series, interpolation [is] possible, [and its] usable with other assets,” the S2F creator added.
What do you think about Plan B’s stock-to-flow update and the call for a $100K by Christmas? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.
Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons
The pseudo-anonymous bitcoin analyst referred to as Plan B gave his 704,000 Twitter followers an replace on the infamous stock-to-flow (S2F) bitcoin worth mannequin. Plan B burdened on August 27, that the “subsequent months will likely be key” as he believes the bitcoin S2F mannequin “predicts $100K by Christmas.”
‘$100K by Xmas’
Plan B is a well-liked determine within the bitcoin world because the pseudo-anonymous analyst is well-known for his stock-to-flow (S2F) worth mannequin. In fundamental phrases, the mannequin quantifies the commodity’s (bitcoin) shortage after which divides it by yearly issuance (the stream).
For fairly a while now, Plan B and plenty of different S2F followers have insisted that if the mannequin is appropriate, BTC might sooner or later attain $100K and sooner or later, probably 1,000,000 U.S. {dollars} per coin. Nonetheless, in June and July, bitcoin (BTC) costs pulled again an amazing deal, after reaching a price of greater than $64K per unit.
After the value drop, Bitcoin.com Information reported on how Plan B was nonetheless assured that the bitcoin “bull just isn’t over.” Following the final S2F replace, Plan B spoke about his mannequin on August twenty seventh, and gave a prediction.
“Bitcoin stock-to-flow mannequin predicts $100K by Christmas,” Plan B tweeted. “Time mannequin (diminishing returns, lengthening cycles) $30K. Subsequent months will likely be key. Word that colour overlay is on-chain sign (not time to halving), indicating we’re between backside (blue) and high (crimson), in keeping with S2F,” the pseudo-anonymous analyst added.
The Time Mannequin Dialogue, Plan B’s S2F Choice
Intothecryptoverse.com’s Benjamin Cowen replied to Plan B’s August 27 tweet, and said: “The time mannequin simply reveals the ‘truthful worth.’ It doesn’t say that the value of bitcoin needs to be that worth at a sure time. We will transfer above and under it, like we do with the S2F mannequin.”
Plan B responded to Cowen’s assertion and said: After all BTC worth can transfer above and under each fashions.[The] level is that BTC worth is at present ABOVE time mannequin, so it isn’t illogical to anticipate decrease costs in the event you observe [the] time mannequin. And [the price of BTC] is BELOW S2F mannequin, so it’s logical to anticipate greater costs in the event you observe S2F.”
Cowen, nonetheless, replied additional stating:
The extension above the time mannequin when it comes to % reveals that we should always anticipate it to in the end lengthen additional than it already has. If we began anticipating it to go decrease the minute it moved above the truthful worth, nicely that will even be irrational.
Plan B has been bullish for a very long time and Bitcoin.com Information has lined the S2F trajectory and the mannequin’s criticisms. The mannequin’s creator has usually mentioned that BTC will see six-digit costs and he believes the mannequin is on observe. The pseudo-anonymous analyst tweets about S2F repeatedly amongst different statistics and figures which can be tethered to bitcoin.
“No one who purchased bitcoin and hodled 4+ years (200 weeks) misplaced cash, ever,” Plan B said final week. “Additionally, each 200wma and realized cap (common price worth of all 18.8M BTC) are at all-time excessive (ATH).” On August 19, Plan B clarify why he prefers the S2F mannequin in distinction to the time mannequin and different estimates.
“S2F mannequin: BTC=a*(S2F ratio)^b,” Plan B stated. “Time mannequin: BTC=a*(months from Jan09)^b. Why I want S2F mannequin: [It] tells you when worth will increase: after halvings, [has] extra strong parameters (a,b), time not an enter variable, S2FX not a time collection, interpolation [is] potential, [and its] usable with different belongings,” the S2F creator added.
What do you concentrate on Plan B’s stock-to-flow replace and the decision for a $100K by Christmas? Tell us what you concentrate on this topic within the feedback part under.
Picture Credit: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons
